While recoveries have unfolded at different speeds, the overall direction is increasingly positive. The latest Macro Poverty Outlook highlights this shift, offering fresh insight into how poverty has evolved and how it is expected to change across low and middle income countries.

The analysis draws on the most recent household survey data, combined with country level projections for economic growth and inflation, as well as information on social assistance programs and their reach. Using advanced tools such as microsimulation models, the estimates reflect the most up to date assessment of poverty trends compiled by the World Bank across 115 countries.

Since 2021, poverty has been on a downward trajectory in the majority of countries. Around three quarters are projected to have reduced poverty between 2021 and 2024, signalling a broad based recovery after the setbacks of the pandemic years. While progress has varied, the overall pattern suggests that growth and policy responses are once again translating into improved living conditions for millions of people.

Encouraging declines in poverty have been observed across Europe and Central Asia, East Asia and the Pacific, and Latin America and the Caribbean. These improvements are closely linked to stronger economic performance. In 2024, more than 80 percent of countries recorded positive economic growth, and this momentum is expected to continue into 2025. Between 2021 and 2024, growth was positive in nearly nine out of ten countries, reinforcing the foundation for sustained poverty reduction.

Other regions are also showing signs of improvement. While low income countries and parts of the Middle East and North Africa and Sub Saharan Africa continue to face challenges, the outlook is strengthening. By 2025, poverty is expected to decline in about 80 percent of all countries, which would be the largest share seen in a decade. Importantly, this progress is projected to extend to low income countries and countries affected by fragility, conflict, and violence, where a growing majority are expected to see poverty rates fall.

These gains reflect forecasts that economic growth will increasingly reach households. In 2025, 85 percent of countries are expected to experience real GDP growth, closely aligning with the large share of countries projected to reduce poverty. This link between growth and household welfare underscores the potential for continued improvements in living standards.

Even in countries with the largest numbers of people living in poverty, prospects are improving. In nine out of the ten most affected countries, economic growth is expected to be positive in 2025. While the scale of poverty reduction may vary, these trends point to meaningful progress and renewed opportunities for inclusion.

As always, projections depend on how economies respond to future challenges, including inflation, debt pressures, climate risks, and conflict. Yet the overall message is one of cautious optimism. With continued growth, effective policies, and resilience in the face of shocks, the global community is steadily moving forward. Although eliminating extreme poverty will take time, the current trajectory shows that progress is not only possible but underway.

For deeper insights into country level developments in poverty and inequality, the World Bank’s Poverty and Inequality Platform, Poverty and Equity Briefs, and Macro Poverty Outlooks offer valuable resources. Together, they help illuminate the paths countries are taking toward more inclusive and resilient growth.

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