Yet beneath the headlines, something remarkable appears to be happening.

According to early data from hundreds of cities across the country, the United States is on track to record the largest single year decline in homicides ever documented.

Based on preliminary crime statistics from 550 law enforcement agencies nationwide, homicide rates are expected to fall by roughly 20 percent by the end of the year, said Jeff Asher, a national crime analyst who tracks real time crime trends. Even with more cautious estimates, the drop would still be unprecedented.

“Even if you take a conservative view and say the decline is closer to 16 or 17 percent, it would still be the largest one year drop on record,” Asher said.

The scale of the decline is especially striking given recent history. After a sharp rise in violent crime during the pandemic, homicide rates began falling in 2022, dropping 6 percent that year and another 13 percent in 2023, according to federal data. In 2024, homicides fell by 15 percent, which at the time marked the steepest decline ever recorded. Now, 2025 appears poised to surpass it.

If the trend holds, the number of homicides nationwide would reach its lowest point since the federal government began tracking such data in 1960, Asher said.

Asher’s analysis draws from the Real Time Crime Index, a project he founded that compiles monthly crime data from police departments across the country. Because the FBI does not release its official annual crime report until the following year, analysts rely on these large scale samples to understand trends in real time. The FBI’s final report for 2025 is not expected until the second quarter of 2026.

Still, early federal figures support the broader picture. Preliminary FBI data released earlier this year showed that homicides fell 18 percent nationwide between September 2024 and August 2025. During that same period, violent crime overall declined by 9 percent, while property crime dropped by 12 percent.

In many major cities, the changes are dramatic. Detroit, Philadelphia, and Baltimore are all on pace to record their lowest murder totals since the 1960s. New Orleans, despite beginning the year with a deadly terrorist attack, is tracking toward its fewest homicides since 1970. San Francisco may see its lowest murder count since 1940.

Chicago has also seen a sharp turnaround. According to data from the Chicago Police Department, homicides in the city are down 30 percent compared with 2024 and nearly 50 percent compared with 2021, when Chicago recorded close to 800 killings.

The decline is not limited to homicides. “We are seeing across the board drops in nearly every category of reported crime,” Asher said. Aggravated assaults are down about 8 percent nationwide this year, and motor vehicle theft has fallen by roughly 23 percent.

Experts caution that no single statistic tells the full story, and high profile acts of violence continue to leave lasting scars on communities. But taken together, the data suggest that the surge in crime that followed the pandemic may be receding and that levels of violence are, in many places, returning to pre pandemic norms.

The contrast is jarring. A year marked by shocking acts of violence may also become a turning point in America’s crime story, one defined not by escalation, but by an unexpected and historic decline.

Photo by franckreporter from Getty Images Signature